# Agent Souk – Prop-Firm Challenge Pass Probability (Block-Bootstrap Monte Carlo)

> Agent Souk – Prop-Firm Challenge Pass Probability (Block-Bootstrap Monte Carlo) is a paid API for AI agents from api.agentsouk.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-13).

Estimates the probability of passing a prop-firm trading challenge and computes risk statistics by running block-bootstrap Monte Carlo simulations over a trader's historical daily returns.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/agent-souk-prop-firm-challenge-pass-probability-block-bootstrap-monte-144b3d4a
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_M8IWxhzs9Hd59vTrnCX1y

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability agent-souk-prop-firm-challenge-pass-probability-block-bootstrap-monte-144b3d4a -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Using my last 60 days of trading returns — [0.003, -0.012, 0.008, ...] — run a block-bootstrap Monte Carlo with 10,000 simulations to estimate my probability of passing a prop-firm challenge with a 10% profit target, 5% daily loss limit, 10% max loss limit, and a 42-day window.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a statistically rigorous, reproducible estimate of prop-firm challenge pass probability based on actual historical daily return data. It uses block-bootstrap resampling to preserve autocorrelation structure in returns (unlike simple i.i.d. Monte Carlo), making it more realistic for trading strategies with momentum or mean-reversion. Prefer it over LLM-based analysis or simple Sharpe-ratio estimates when you need calibrated probabilities with explicit challenge rule parameters (profit target, daily loss cap, overall drawdown cap, time limit).

## Known failure modes

- Fewer than 20 daily returns provided — minimum array length not met
- daily_returns values outside [-1, 1] range cause validation errors
- simulations count exceeds 50,000 limit
- max_days exceeds 365 limit
- Inconsistent or all-zero returns array may produce degenerate probability estimates
- Network timeout if simulation count is very high and server load is elevated

## How this service works

Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (block-bootstrap Monte Carlo, no LLM)

## Output

Returns Monte Carlo-derived statistics including the estimated probability of passing the prop-firm challenge (hitting the profit target within the allowed days without breaching any loss limit), probability of busting via overall drawdown, probability of busting via single-day loss rule, and additional risk metrics derived from the simulated return paths — all computed deterministically without any LLM.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "seed": {
   "type": "integer",
   "default": 0,
   "maximum": 4294967295,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "scale": {
   "type": "number",
   "default": 1,
   "maximum": 100,
   "minimum": 0.001,
   "description": "Multiplies every return (position size)"
  },
  "target": {
   "type": "number",
   "default": 0.1,
   "maximum": 5,
   "minimum": 0.0001,
   "description": "Profit target, fraction of the starting balance"
  },
  "max_days": {
   "type": "integer",
   "default": 42,
   "maximum": 365,
   "minimum": 1,
   "description": "Trading days the challenge may take"
  },
  "max_loss": {
   "type": "number",
   "default": 0.1,
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0.0001,
   "description": "Overall loss limit (cumulative at or below -max_loss busts)"
  },
  "daily_loss": {
   "type": "number",
   "default": 0.05,
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0,
   "description": "Single-day loss limit (a day at or below -daily_loss busts); 0 = off"
  },
  "simulations": {
   "type": "integer",
   "default": 10000,
   "maximum": 50000,
   "minimum": 100
  },
  "block_length": {
   "type": "number",
   "default": 5,
   "maximum": 250,
   "minimum": 1,
   "description": "Mean block length; 1 = i.i.d.; may exceed the number of days"
  },
  "daily_returns": {
   "type": "array",
   "items": {
    "type": "number",
    "maximum": 1,
    "minimum": -1
   },
   "maxItems": 5000,
   "minItems": 20,
   "description": "Daily results as fractions of the starting balance, in order (0.004 = +0.4 %)"
  },
  "trading_days_per_year": {
   "type": "integer",
   "default": 252,
   "maximum": 366,
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/agent-souk-prop-firm-challenge-pass-probability-block-bootstrap-monte-144b3d4a/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.agentsouk.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.agentsouk.dev/llms.txt)