# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-f9d81b04
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_NcqPCpgAFajU8RxpaulBX

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-f9d81b04
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Fed rate cut happening in Q3? Include volume and any whale sentiment signals.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from actual prediction market traders for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events. It is superior to news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied consensus with volume and whale activity signals. Prefer this over general web search when you specifically need quantified probability estimates backed by real money.

## Known failure modes

- Topic query too vague or ambiguous — no matching Polymarket market found
- Polymarket API or data feed temporarily unavailable — stale or empty response
- Payment not processed (HTTP 402) — requires $0.01 USDC per call via x402
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — throttled response
- Market exists but has low liquidity — probabilities may be unreliable

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the matched prediction market event or question.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-f9d81b04/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)