# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-41243aaf
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_OwNc6znJpga33ZjGDCg4U

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-41243aaf
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, including current trading volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. It is preferable to static news or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities with volume and sentiment signals. Best suited for agents doing investment research, event-driven trading analysis, or real-time probability monitoring.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket markets — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or first-match results
- Polymarket API or upstream data feed is unavailable — returns error or stale data
- Payment not processed via x402 — returns HTTP 402 Payment Required
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — returns HTTP 429

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities as percentages, current trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and market metadata for the queried event or topic.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-41243aaf/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)