# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-556457cc
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_mmuByFBVV6NnFcA61iFP0

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-556457cc
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability for the Fed cutting interest rates before the end of 2025? Include volume and any whale sentiment signals.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. It is ideal for agents that need to gauge market consensus, whale positioning, or implied odds on near-term events without building a Polymarket integration from scratch. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you specifically need quantified probability rather than qualitative opinion.

## Known failure modes

- No matching market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may include multiple or unexpected markets
- Stale data if Polymarket API is delayed — probabilities may lag real-time market state
- Payment failure (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment is not completed before query
- Rate limiting or throttling if too many queries are made in rapid succession

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)

## Output

Returns a JSON object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total market volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/alpha-stream-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-556457cc/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/alpha-stream.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)