# AlphaPipeline Neg-Risk Arbitrage

> AlphaPipeline Neg-Risk Arbitrage is a paid API for AI agents from alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com, paid per call via x402, $0.03/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-12).

Detects basket arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) events by checking whether the sum of all outcome prices deviates from $1, and computes executable liquidity capacity for each direction.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.03/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-12
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/alphapipeline-neg-risk-arbitrage-334a96c9
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_J91F6N5-5l5pDUNDodUYX

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability alphapipeline-neg-risk-arbitrage-334a96c9
```

Example prompt: Check the Polymarket event 'us-presidential-election-winner-2024' for neg-risk basket arbitrage — use a max slippage of 1.5%, require at least a 1% net edge, and assume 1.5% round-trip costs.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need to detect and size neg-risk basket arbitrage specifically on Polymarket multi-outcome mutually-exclusive events. It is the right choice when you need not just a theoretical price signal but actual executable capacity accounting for order book depth and slippage. Prefer this over generic order book tools because it understands the neg-risk constraint that a full YES basket always settles to exactly $1. Do not use for Kalshi (ToS prohibits this data use) or for binary (two-outcome) markets where neg-risk mechanics do not apply.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or non-existent event_slug returns an error or empty result
- Event is not a neg-risk (mutually exclusive) market — endpoint is only valid for Polymarket neg-risk events
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — data may be stale or unavailable
- No arbitrage opportunity found — arbitrage_viable returns false with near-zero edge
- Liquidity too thin — buy/sell basket capacity returns zero or near-zero shares
- Payment failure in USDC on Base — request not processed

## How this service works

Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.

## Output

Returns a structured response including the basket ask sum and bid sum (summed across all outcomes), an opportunity description string characterizing the arbitrage direction and magnitude, an arbitrage_viable boolean flag, buy and sell basket capacity in shares (the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now given slippage), number of outcomes, assumed round-trip cost, and a timestamp pair in UTC and KST. An optional notice field may include warnings or caveats.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET",
      "HEAD",
      "DELETE"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "event_slug"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "event_slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com."
      },
      "max_slippage_pct": {
       "type": "number",
       "description": "How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0."
      },
      "min_net_edge_pct": {
       "type": "number",
       "description": "Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0."
      },
      "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": {
       "type": "number",
       "description": "Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5."
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "title": "PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse",
     "required": [
      "generated_at",
      "event_slug",
      "num_outcomes",
      "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct",
      "buy_basket_capacity_shares",
      "sell_basket_capacity_shares",
      "opportunity",
      "arbitrage_viable",
      "data_source"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "notice": {
       "anyOf": [
        {
         "type": "string"
        },
        {
         "type": "null"
        }
       ],
       "title": "Notice",
       "default": null
      },
      "event_slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "Event Slug"
      },
      "data_source": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "Data Source"
      },
      "opportunity": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "Opportunity"
      },
      "generated_at": {
       "type": "object",
       "title": "TimestampPair",
       "required": [
        "utc",
        "kst"
       ],
       "properties": {
        "kst": {
… (truncated)
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/alphapipeline-neg-risk-arbitrage-334a96c9/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/llms.txt)