# DripMetrics Polymarket Probability Shock

> DripMetrics Polymarket Probability Shock is a paid API for AI agents from api.dripmetrics.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Measures how large a recent Polymarket price move is relative to recent realized volatility, returning a normalized probability shock score for a given market token or slug.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.dripmetrics.ai/polymarket/probability-shock
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/api-dripmetrics-ai-a209ba42
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_wcrZzLoBewU4xZiTvW13W

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability api-dripmetrics-ai-a209ba42 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Check the probability shock on the Polymarket market with slug 'will-trump-win-2024' for the YES outcome using a 60-minute window and a 1440-minute lookback — I want to know if the recent price move is unusually large relative to its historical volatility.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need to detect or quantify abnormal price moves on a specific Polymarket prediction market — particularly for risk alerting, anomaly detection, or news-leakage scoring relative to recent realized volatility. Prefer over raw price feeds when you need a normalized, interpretable shock score rather than raw price levels.

## Known failure modes

- Missing required market identifier (tokenId, assetId, or slug+outcome) returns a 400 validation error
- Invalid or non-existent tokenId/slug returns a 404 or empty result
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC balance returns a 402 Payment Required
- windowMinutes or lookbackMinutes too small for sufficient data may return a low sampleSize or error
- Polymarket API unavailability may cause upstream data fetch failures

## How this service works

DripMetricsAI (https://dripmetrics.ai/) provides on-demand crypto market microstructure metrics, Hyperliquid candle metrics, Polymarket diagnostics, and on-chain DefiLlama metrics for agents, dashboards, and trading workflows.

## Output

A structured JSON object containing the metric name ('probability-shock'), the analysis window, a normalized shock value indicating how many standard deviations the recent price move is from the historical baseline, component breakdown values, sample size, data source, and a computedAt timestamp.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "POST"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "anyOf": [
      {
       "required": [
        "tokenId"
       ]
      },
      {
       "required": [
        "assetId"
       ]
      },
      {
       "required": [
        "slug",
        "outcome"
       ]
      }
     ],
     "required": [],
     "properties": {
      "slug": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Polymarket market or event slug for human-readable market selection. Multi-market event slugs may require conditionId to disambiguate."
      },
      "endTs": {
       "type": "integer",
       "description": "Optional unix timestamp upper bound."
      },
      "limit": {
       "type": "integer",
       "maximum": 5000,
       "minimum": 1,
       "description": "Maximum number of trades to evaluate."
      },
      "newsTs": {
       "type": "integer",
       "description": "Optional explicit event timestamp for leakage scoring. If omitted, the metric uses the midpoint of the effective analysis window."
      },
      "assetId": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Alias for tokenId on price-history-based endpoints."
      },
      "outcome": {
       "enum": [
        "YES",
        "NO"
       ],
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Required for token-side Polymarket diagnostics when the selected YES or NO side must be interpreted."
      },
      "startTs": {
       "type": "integer",
       "description": "Optional unix timestamp lower bound."
      },
      "tokenId": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Polymarket token / asset ID for orderbook and price-history endpoints."
      },
      "conditionId": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Polymarket condition ID for trade-based metrics."
      },
      "windowMinutes": {
       "type": "integer",
       "minimum": 1,
       "description": "Lookback window in minutes."
      },
      "lookbackMinutes": {
       "type": "integer",
       "minimum": 1,
       "description": "Historical lookback used for probability shock normalization."
      }
     },
     "additionalProperties": false
    }
   },
   "add
… (truncated)
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "slug": "fed-decision-in-october",
  "value": 2.1437,
  "metric": "probability-shock",
  "source": {
   "market": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/slug/fed-decision-in-october",
   "priceHistory": "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history"
  },
  "window": {
   "windowMinutes": 60,
   "lookbackMinutes": 1440
  },
  "assetId": "52114319501245791867035421127632480533667839244426816785285192633646117989903",
  "outcome": "YES",
  "tokenId": "52114319501245791867035421127632480533667839244426816785285192633646117989903",
  "components": {
   "delta": 0.07,
   "shockZ": 2.1437,
   "priorPrice": 0.54,
   "realizedVol": 0.0326,
   "currentPrice": 0.61
  },
  "computedAt": "2026-05-25T14:00:00.000Z",
  "sampleSize": {
   "pricePoints": 1440
  },
  "conditionId": "0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/api-dripmetrics-ai-a209ba42/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.dripmetrics.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.dripmetrics.ai/llms.txt)