# Cross-Venue Prediction Market Event Fusion

> Cross-Venue Prediction Market Event Fusion is a paid API for AI agents from api.agentstools.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Matches the same event across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus using fuzzy title matching and date proximity, then returns each venue's implied probability, a weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.agentstools.dev/prediction/event
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/cross-venue-prediction-market-event-fusion-341f351f
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_AD3PMjXyeFsCtzkuQ66PH

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability cross-venue-prediction-market-event-fusion-341f351f
```

Example prompt: What do Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus each say about the probability that the US enters a recession in 2025, and how much do they disagree with each other?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a unified view of how multiple prediction markets assess the same event, especially to detect forecast divergence or compute a cross-venue consensus. Prefer this over querying individual venue APIs when you want probabilistic aggregation and disagreement signals in a single call rather than raw market data from one source.

## Known failure modes

- No matching event found across any venue — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous query matches unrelated markets — wrong event fused
- Only one venue has the event — divergence signal is unavailable
- market_id anchor not found on specified venue — fallback to text-only matching
- Rate limit or payment failure — 402 or 429 response

## How this service works

Cross-venue event fusion: match the SAME event across prediction venues (deterministic fuzzy title match + resolve-date proximity) and return each venue's implied probability, a money-type-weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal (venue disagreement, not a tradeable arbitrage).

## Output

Returns each prediction venue's implied probability for the matched event, a money-type-weighted consensus probability across venues, and a forecast-divergence signal quantifying how much the venues disagree — along with the matched market titles and resolve dates used for the cross-venue pairing.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET",
      "HEAD",
      "DELETE"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [],
     "properties": {
      "query": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "The event to fuse across venues (free text)"
      },
      "venue": {
       "enum": [
        "polymarket",
        "manifold",
        "metaculus"
       ],
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Optional venue key for market_id"
      },
      "market_id": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Optional venue market id (anchor)"
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/cross-venue-prediction-market-event-fusion-341f351f/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.agentstools.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.agentstools.dev/llms.txt)