# Crypto Forecast Range & Upside Probability

> Crypto Forecast Range & Upside Probability is a paid API for AI agents from crypto.forgemesh.io, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).

Returns a conformally-calibrated 80% price interval, current price, and upside probability for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, or ADA.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://crypto.forgemesh.io/api/kronos/forecast
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/crypto-forecast-range-upside-probability-29018ea3
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_1UD3Q7ux2cRkMALPEShcS

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability crypto-forecast-range-upside-probability-29018ea3
```

Example prompt: What's the calibrated 80% price range and upside probability for ETH right now — I want the interval, not just a single price target.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a probabilistic price range rather than a point forecast, especially for position sizing, risk management, or planning thresholds. Prefer this over a single-price prediction endpoint when calibrated coverage and upside probability are needed. Best for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, or ADA; not for stocks or other assets.

## Known failure modes

- Unsupported symbol provided — only BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA are accepted
- Missing or malformed symbol query parameter returns error
- Payment failure (x402) if USDC payment not processed correctly
- Stale data if underlying signal pipeline lags — check data_freshness on companion endpoint
- Network timeout if upstream data sources are unavailable

## How this service works

Returns a conformally-calibrated range_80 price interval (~80% empirical coverage) plus current_price and upside_probability for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/ADA — use the range for planning instead of a single point prediction.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: symbol, range_80 (object with lower and upper price bounds calibrated for ~80% empirical coverage), current_price, upside_probability (float 0-1), and why_not_high (array of factors limiting upside). Designed for planning against a range rather than a point estimate.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "symbol": {
       "type": "string"
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "symbol": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "range_80": {
       "type": "object"
      },
      "why_not_high": {
       "type": "array"
      },
      "upside_probability": {
       "type": "number"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "symbol": "BTC/USD",
  "horizon": "~5h",
  "range_80": {
   "low": 60275,
   "high": 62806,
   "method": "conformal",
   "coverage_target": 0.8
  },
  "why_not_high": [
   "The calibrated interval is designed for approximate coverage, not certainty; some realized prices can still land outside the range."
  ],
  "current_price": 61234.5,
  "upside_probability": 0.52
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/crypto-forecast-range-upside-probability-29018ea3/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from crypto.forgemesh.io](https://www.zero.xyz/host/crypto.forgemesh.io/llms.txt)