# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from cve-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: cve-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-834a0d54
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_94gi8L__ktz5y94_TLbfB

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-834a0d54
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?' — including trading volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets, especially for macro economic events, crypto milestones, AI policy, or geopolitical outcomes. Prefer this over news APIs or sentiment analysis when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money and volume data.

## Known failure modes

- Topic not found on Polymarket — no active market matching the keyword
- Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — may return unexpected results
- Stale data if Polymarket API is rate-limited or temporarily unavailable
- Payment failure via x402 resulting in 402 response before data is returned
- Empty orderbook for low-liquidity or recently closed markets

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities derived from orderbook prices, trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-834a0d54/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from cve-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/cve-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)