# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-19908a28
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_yrP7Nf3Y6EG-VLBASvFiV

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-19908a28
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for specific macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's live orderbook — especially when you want implied market odds rather than model-based forecasts. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you need quantified probability with volume and whale activity context.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API upstream outage causing stale or unavailable data
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets — may return unexpected market
- Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded returning an error response

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and market metadata for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-19908a28/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)