# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-43a8e1af
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_efF9tHBvkqZtAHQV3K9U6

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-43a8e1af -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the US entering a recession this year, including volume and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. It is especially useful when you want market-implied probabilities (rather than model-based forecasts) and whale sentiment as a signal. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when the question has a binary Yes/No resolution and you want financially-backed consensus odds.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causes delayed or failed data fetch
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple unrelated markets, returning mixed or irrelevant results
- Payment failure via x402 protocol prevents endpoint access
- Stale data returned if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or no recent trades

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals for the matching prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-43a8e1af/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)