# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6f10610d
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_WoEO0W0YAgVj3wKoEqtGd

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6f10610d
```

Example prompt: What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for Bitcoin reaching $100k by end of year? Pull the orderbook data and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need live, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money. Best for agents that need quantitative Yes/No probability estimates rather than qualitative sentiment, or when whale/volume data is needed to assess conviction.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most popular match rather than the intended one
- Market may be recently resolved or expired — odds may reflect a closed market
- Polymarket API upstream downtime causes fetch failure
- Payment not processed (x402) — endpoint returns 402 and does not deliver data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), total trading volume, whale/large-trader sentiment signals, and relevant market metadata for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6f10610d/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)