# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8ca3e30e
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_TiFIkKWtGdy79QqLoDJWa

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8ca3e30e
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability for the Fed cutting interest rates before the end of Q3? I want to see volume and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for specific future events — especially macro, crypto, or AI milestones — and want market-derived implied probabilities rather than analyst forecasts. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want quantified, financially-staked probability signals and volume/whale data from Polymarket's decentralized orderbook.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API upstream outage causing stale or unavailable data
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets
- Payment required (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment header is not included
- Rate limiting if called too frequently without valid payment credentials

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), market trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators showing how large traders are positioned on the event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8ca3e30e/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)