# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-bb38c6ae
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_PV5gy9rH5ODknIkWUrk9y

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-bb38c6ae
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for whether the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting? I want to see volume and any whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probabilistic signals for macro, political, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probabilities with actual money at stake (rather than social sentiment), or when you need orderbook depth and whale positioning data. Best suited for AI agents that need to incorporate prediction market odds into trading, research, or decision-support workflows.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable — may return stale or error response
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — response may include multiple markets requiring disambiguation
- Payment failure via x402 protocol — endpoint returns 402 if USDC micropayment not completed
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — endpoint returns 429 or error

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)

## Output

Returns structured Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities derived from the live orderbook, total trading volume, and whale/large-wallet sentiment signals. This enables agents to gauge crowd-sourced probabilistic expectations for macro, political, crypto, and AI events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-bb38c6ae/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)