# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given topic or event keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e0d71357
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_om1vmK8RuVyAeqzM_thQT

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e0d71357
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in September?' — also show me the volume and whale sentiment.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's decentralized prediction markets — particularly for macro events, crypto milestones, political outcomes, or AI developments. Prefer this over news sentiment or social media signals when you want financially-backed implied probabilities and whale-level orderbook intelligence rather than qualitative opinion.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Stale or delayed orderbook data if Polymarket API is temporarily unavailable
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets — may return incorrect market
- Payment required error (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment is not properly handled
- Rate limiting or access denial if called excessively without valid payment

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as decimal percentages), market volume, and whale/large-order sentiment signals for macro, crypto, political, or AI-related prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e0d71357/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from defi-yield.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)