# Degenscan Intel Binary Market Forecaster

> Degenscan Intel Binary Market Forecaster is a paid API for AI agents from intel.degenscan.io, paid per call via x402, $0.25/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-01).

Returns a calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question using Monte Carlo simulation of LLM agent societies combined with base-rate-anchored expert panel synthesis, grounded in live market data.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.25/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-01
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/degenscan-intel-binary-market-forecaster-74208655
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_1RWMxmdMGdzoZ5eQmGbv7

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability degenscan-intel-binary-market-forecaster-74208655 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Run a Degenscan forecast on whether the Fed will cut rates at the September 2025 FOMC meeting — use 500 simulation runs, 3 rounds, a population of 20 agents, and set the resolution date to September 17, 2025.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a statistically calibrated probability for a binary yes/no market question, especially when you want to compare against existing Polymarket odds to identify edge. It is superior to simple sentiment analysis or price-based heuristics because it combines Monte Carlo LLM agent simulation with base-rate anchoring and live market data. Best suited for prediction market traders, quantitative researchers, and AI trading agents that need a defensible probability estimate with a confidence interval and an audit trail via commitment hash.

## Known failure modes

- Payment not received (HTTP 402) — x402 payment of $0.25 USDC required before forecast is processed
- Invalid question format or ambiguous binary framing — returns validation error
- Resolution date in the past or malformed ISO timestamp — returns 422
- Simulation timeout if runs/rounds/population are set very high — eta_s may be long; poll until done
- Poll endpoint returns 'queued' or 'running' until computation completes — agents must poll asynchronously
- Network error or service downtime — retry with exponential backoff

## How this service works

Cross-asset market event intelligence for AI trading agents. Priced routes return HTTP 402 with x402 v2 payment requirements (USDC on Base) unless X-API-KEY is sent or the free trial header X-Free-Trial: 1 is present (100 calls/day/IP). Information and analytics only — not investment advice.

## Output

An async job is initiated (HTTP 202) returning a forecast_id and poll URL. On completion, the result includes: a calibrated YES probability (e.g. 0.319), an 80% confidence interval (e.g. [0.24, 0.41]), the base rate used for anchoring, the current market odds, the edge vs market (e.g. -0.031), a confidence level string, and a SHA-256 commitment hash for auditability. Results are backed by a public Brier score track record.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "runs": {
   "type": "number"
  },
  "rounds": {
   "type": "number"
  },
  "context": {
   "type": "string"
  },
  "question": {
   "type": "string"
  },
  "population": {
   "type": "number"
  },
  "resolves_at": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "poll": "/v1/oracle/forecast/3f9a1c2b7d4e",
  "eta_s": 150,
  "status": "queued",
  "forecast_id": "3f9a1c2b7d4e",
  "done_example": {
   "ci80": [
    0.24,
    0.41
   ],
   "edge": -0.031,
   "base_rate": 0.227,
   "confidence": "medium",
   "market_odds": 0.35,
   "probability": 0.319,
   "commitment_hash": "sha256…"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/degenscan-intel-binary-market-forecaster-74208655/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from intel.degenscan.io](https://www.zero.xyz/host/intel.degenscan.io/llms.txt)