# Delx Bitcoin Up/Down 30-Minute Probability

> Delx Bitcoin Up/Down 30-Minute Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Estimates the probability that Bitcoin will be up or down in a 30-minute window using caller-supplied BTC price observations and venue context

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-30m
- Price: $0.003/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-bitcoin-up-down-30-minute-probability-4ec9c8a5
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_zMwdLDl2TqagaeKQ10zn6

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability delx-bitcoin-up-down-30-minute-probability-4ec9c8a5 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Using my last 12 BTC price observations (starting at $97,200 and ending at $97,650 over the past 30 minutes), with the venue's opening price at $97,200 and window closing at Unix timestamp 1748700000, estimate whether Bitcoin is more likely to finish up or down — and if market_up_price is 0.55 and market_down_price is 0.45 with a 50 bps entry fee, show me the model-edge comparison.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a conservative, model-driven directional probability estimate for Bitcoin over a 30-minute window using your own caller-supplied price data — especially when you want to compare against binary market implied odds with an explicit edge calculation. It is preferable when you have 8–240 ordered BTC price observations ready and need a fast, deterministic, reproducible estimate without relying on live market data feeds. Not suitable for longer horizons, other assets, or when a calibrated probabilistic forecast is required.

## Known failure modes

- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error
- Observations not ordered by timestamp — may reduce data quality score or trigger warnings
- window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — endpoint may return degraded estimate or error
- market_up_price + market_down_price do not sum near 1.0 — edge comparison may be misleading
- Probability is uncalibrated by design — always returns warning that output is not trading advice
- Payment failure via x402 on Base or Solana — request not processed
- More than 240 observations provided — schema validation error

## How this service works

Bitcoin Up or Down 30-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for half-hour windows using the widest caller-supplied context in this family. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied BTC price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solana…

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: asset (BTC), schema version, status (estimate), an estimate object with p_up, p_down, and lean direction (up/down), a data_quality object with label, score, and number of observations used, model metadata including version and calibration warnings, a list of warnings (e.g. uncalibrated probability, not trading advice), and horizon_minutes (30). Optionally includes a descriptive model-edge comparison when market share prices and fees are provided.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "fee_bps": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 1000,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "observations": {
   "type": "array",
   "items": {
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
     "timestamp",
     "price"
    ],
    "properties": {
     "price": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 1000000000000000,
      "minimum": 1e-12
     },
     "timestamp": {
      "type": "integer",
      "minimum": 1
     }
    },
    "additionalProperties": false
   },
   "maxItems": 240,
   "minItems": 8
  },
  "market_up_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "market_down_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "window_open_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1000000000000000,
   "minimum": 1e-12
  },
  "window_close_timestamp": {
   "type": "integer",
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "asset": "BTC",
  "model": {
   "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
   "no_live_market_data": true,
   "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
   "deterministic_for_same_input": true
  },
  "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
  "status": "estimate",
  "estimate": {
   "lean": "up",
   "p_up": 0.800833,
   "p_down": 0.199167
  },
  "warnings": [
   "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
   "probability_is_uncalibrated",
   "not_trading_advice"
  ],
  "data_quality": {
   "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
   "score": 0.758333,
   "observations_used": 8
  },
  "horizon_minutes": 30,
  "input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-bitcoin-up-down-30-minute-probability-4ec9c8a5/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.delx.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.delx.ai/llms.txt)