# Delx Bitcoin Up/Down 5-Minute Probability

> Delx Bitcoin Up/Down 5-Minute Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Estimates probability that BTC price will be up or down at the close of a 5-minute window, given caller-supplied price observations and window parameters

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-5m
- Price: $0.003/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-bitcoin-up-down-5-minute-probability-2075676a
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_k3uEvc-pOp2eFjt8xaNWO

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability delx-bitcoin-up-down-5-minute-probability-2075676a -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: I have 20 BTC price readings from the last few minutes — can you estimate the probability that Bitcoin closes up or down at the 5-minute window closing at Unix timestamp 1718000100, given an opening price of 67250.50? The market is offering up shares at 0.62 and down shares at 0.35 with a 50 bps fee.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, self-contained BTC directional probability estimate based on caller-supplied price data without relying on live market data feeds. It is ideal for agents operating in prediction market contexts where you can supply your own recent BTC observations and want a conservative p_up/p_down pair along with a data quality score and optional model-edge comparison. Prefer it over generic ML inference endpoints when you specifically need Bitcoin 5-minute window direction probability with a structured schema contract and deterministic output for the same input.

## Known failure modes

- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error
- Observations array exceeds 240 items — rejected
- window_close_timestamp or window_open_price missing or invalid — malformed request error
- Payment not attached or insufficient USDC via x402 — 402 Payment Required
- Duplicate or out-of-order timestamps may reduce data quality score without explicit error
- Market share prices outside 0-1 range — validation failure
- Model returns uncalibrated probabilities by design — consumers must treat output as estimate, not calibrated forecast

## How this service works

Bitcoin Up or Down 5-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for rapid near-close windows where the freshest supplied observations matter most. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied BTC price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Sol…

## Output

Returns a JSON object with: probability pair (p_up, p_down summing to ~1.0), directional lean ('up' or 'down'), a data quality score and label for the supplied observations, model metadata (version, calibration status, determinism flag), warnings (e.g. uncalibrated probability, not trading advice), asset name, schema version, and optional model-edge comparison if share prices and fees were supplied.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "fee_bps": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 1000,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "observations": {
   "type": "array",
   "items": {
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
     "timestamp",
     "price"
    ],
    "properties": {
     "price": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 1000000000000000,
      "minimum": 1e-12
     },
     "timestamp": {
      "type": "integer",
      "minimum": 1
     }
    },
    "additionalProperties": false
   },
   "maxItems": 240,
   "minItems": 8
  },
  "market_up_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "market_down_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "window_open_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1000000000000000,
   "minimum": 1e-12
  },
  "window_close_timestamp": {
   "type": "integer",
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "asset": "BTC",
  "model": {
   "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
   "no_live_market_data": true,
   "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
   "deterministic_for_same_input": true
  },
  "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
  "status": "estimate",
  "estimate": {
   "lean": "up",
   "p_up": 0.79955,
   "p_down": 0.20045
  },
  "warnings": [
   "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
   "probability_is_uncalibrated",
   "not_trading_advice"
  ],
  "data_quality": {
   "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
   "score": 0.7455,
   "observations_used": 8
  },
  "horizon_minutes": 5,
  "input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-bitcoin-up-down-5-minute-probability-2075676a/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.delx.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.delx.ai/llms.txt)