# Delx Commerce — Ethereum 15-Minute Up/Down Prediction

> Delx Commerce — Ethereum 15-Minute Up/Down Prediction is a paid API for AI agents from commerce.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-02).

Given a series of caller-supplied ETH price observations, returns a probabilistic up/down prediction for the next 15 minutes

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-15m?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.003/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-02
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-commerce-ethereum-15-minute-up-down-prediction-2c9653c3
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_CznJXCjrHuJrjzwUDn1Mh

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability delx-commerce-ethereum-15-minute-up-down-prediction-2c9653c3 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Using my last 8 ETH price observations (e.g. prices ranging from $3200 to $3240 over the past hour with timestamps), give me a 15-minute up/down probability estimate for Ethereum — I want to know if the lean is up or down and how confident the model is.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you have a series of caller-supplied ETH price observations and need a fast, pay-per-call 15-minute directional probability estimate with no account setup, verifiable delivery, and a fixed $0.003 USDC cost. Prefer this over free model APIs when you need guaranteed response pricing and cryptographic payment receipts. Note that probabilities are explicitly uncalibrated, so this is best used as a signal input rather than a standalone trading decision.

## Known failure modes

- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected (minItems constraint)
- Timestamps not in valid Unix epoch format — validation error
- Prices outside allowed range (1e-12 to 1e15) — validation error
- Uncalibrated probabilities — model warns but still returns estimate
- Insufficient payment via x402 — 402 Payment Required response
- Probability outputs are explicitly flagged as uncalibrated and not suitable for live trading without further validation

## How this service works

Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.

## Output

Returns a JSON object containing: the asset (ETH), model metadata (version, calibration warnings), prediction status ('estimate'), a directional lean ('up' or 'down'), p_up and p_down probabilities, a data quality score and label, the 15-minute horizon, and a list of warnings about data provenance and calibration.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "fee_bps": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 1000,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "observations": {
   "type": "array",
   "items": {
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
     "timestamp",
     "price"
    ],
    "properties": {
     "price": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 1000000000000000,
      "minimum": 1e-12
     },
     "timestamp": {
      "type": "integer",
      "minimum": 1
     }
    },
    "additionalProperties": false
   },
   "maxItems": 240,
   "minItems": 8
  },
  "market_up_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "market_down_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "window_open_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1000000000000000,
   "minimum": 1e-12
  },
  "window_close_timestamp": {
   "type": "integer",
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "asset": "ETH",
  "model": {
   "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
   "no_live_market_data": true,
   "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
   "deterministic_for_same_input": true
  },
  "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
  "status": "estimate",
  "estimate": {
   "lean": "up",
   "p_up": 0.800406,
   "p_down": 0.199594
  },
  "warnings": [
   "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
   "probability_is_uncalibrated",
   "not_trading_advice"
  ],
  "data_quality": {
   "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
   "score": 0.754056,
   "observations_used": 8
  },
  "horizon_minutes": 15,
  "input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-commerce-ethereum-15-minute-up-down-prediction-2c9653c3/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from commerce.delx.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/commerce.delx.ai/llms.txt)