# Delx Commerce — Implied Probability from Yes/No Counts

> Delx Commerce — Implied Probability from Yes/No Counts is a paid API for AI agents from commerce.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-01).

Converts raw yes/no vote or bet counts into implied probabilities, removing the overround to produce fair market probabilities.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/implied-from-yes-no?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.001/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-01
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-commerce-implied-probability-from-yes-no-counts-57686c11
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_es4XZY3G_ZFEOP6TpuI-2

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability delx-commerce-implied-probability-from-yes-no-counts-57686c11 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Convert a yes count of 52 and a no count of 76 into implied probabilities — I need both the p_yes and p_no values, plus the overround.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you have raw binary vote, contract, or bet counts and need to derive fair implied probabilities with the overround explicitly surfaced. Ideal for prediction markets, binary polls, or sports betting analysis where you want a quick, cheap, verifiable computation without building the math yourself. Prefer this over general statistics APIs when you specifically need the implied probability decomposition pattern with overround, paid per-call with no signup via x402/USDC.

## Known failure modes

- Missing or non-numeric yes/no values returns a validation error
- Both yes and no equal zero causes a division-by-zero or undefined probability
- Payment not provided or insufficient USDC results in HTTP 402 Payment Required
- Negative input values may produce nonsensical probabilities

## How this service works

Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with p_yes (implied probability of yes outcome), p_no (implied probability of no outcome), overround (the total excess probability above 1.0, indicating the market's margin), and a schema identifier string. Example: p_yes≈0.404, p_no≈0.596, overround≈0.04.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "no": {
   "type": "number",
   "description": "Input field: no."
  },
  "yes": {
   "type": "number",
   "description": "Input field: yes."
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "p_no": 0.5961538461538461,
  "p_yes": 0.4038461538461538,
  "schema": "delx/util-implied-from-yes-no/v1",
  "overround": 0.04000000000000004
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-commerce-implied-probability-from-yes-no-counts-57686c11/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from commerce.delx.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/commerce.delx.ai/llms.txt)