# Delx Ethereum Up/Down 5-Minute Probability Estimator

> Delx Ethereum Up/Down 5-Minute Probability Estimator is a paid API for AI agents from api.delx.ai, paid per call via x402, $0.003/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Estimates the probability that ETH price will be up or down at the close of a 5-minute window, given caller-supplied price observations and window parameters.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/ethereum-up-down-5m
- Price: $0.003/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-ethereum-up-down-5-minute-probability-estimator-ed527760
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_wPQEKBRLB__FfN6KFw8fm

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability delx-ethereum-up-down-5-minute-probability-estimator-ed527760 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: I have 12 recent ETH price observations from the last few minutes — the window opened at $3,421.50 and closes at Unix timestamp 1718550300. Can you estimate the probability that ETH will be up or down at close, and let me know the lean direction and data quality score?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, low-cost ($0.003) binary directional probability estimate for ETH over a 5-minute window using your own supplied price observations, without requiring live market data feeds. It is ideal for agents operating in binary prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket-style ETH up/down contracts) that need a model-generated lean and edge comparison before placing or automating a trade. Prefer this over generic sentiment or on-chain analytics when you have a specific window close timestamp and recent ordered price data, and want explicit data quality scoring and conservative probability bounds.

## Known failure modes

- Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error
- Observations are out of order or contain invalid timestamps — may reduce data quality score or trigger warnings
- window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — required fields absent cause request failure
- Probability is flagged as uncalibrated — model explicitly warns results are not calibrated probabilities
- Payment of $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base fails — request not processed
- market_up_price + market_down_price don't sum near 1.0 — edge comparison may be misleading

## How this service works

Ethereum Up or Down 5-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for rapid near-close windows where the freshest supplied observations matter most. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied ETH price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or So…

## Output

Returns a JSON object with the estimated p_up and p_down probability pair (summing to 1.0), a lean direction (up/down), an input data quality score and label, the model version and metadata flags (e.g. uncalibrated, no live market data), the asset (ETH), horizon in minutes (5), and an array of warnings such as 'probability_is_uncalibrated' or 'not_trading_advice'. When UP/DOWN share prices and fees are provided, an implicit model-edge comparison may be included.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "fee_bps": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 1000,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "observations": {
   "type": "array",
   "items": {
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
     "timestamp",
     "price"
    ],
    "properties": {
     "price": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 1000000000000000,
      "minimum": 1e-12
     },
     "timestamp": {
      "type": "integer",
      "minimum": 1
     }
    },
    "additionalProperties": false
   },
   "maxItems": 240,
   "minItems": 8
  },
  "market_up_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "market_down_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "window_open_price": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1000000000000000,
   "minimum": 1e-12
  },
  "window_close_timestamp": {
   "type": "integer",
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "asset": "ETH",
  "model": {
   "version": "delx-local-updown-v1",
   "no_live_market_data": true,
   "probability_is_uncalibrated": true,
   "deterministic_for_same_input": true
  },
  "schema": "delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1",
  "status": "estimate",
  "estimate": {
   "lean": "up",
   "p_up": 0.79955,
   "p_down": 0.20045
  },
  "warnings": [
   "caller_supplied_prices_not_verified",
   "probability_is_uncalibrated",
   "not_trading_advice"
  ],
  "data_quality": {
   "label": "adequate_input_coverage",
   "score": 0.7455,
   "observations_used": 8
  },
  "horizon_minutes": 5,
  "input_provenance": "caller_supplied"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/delx-ethereum-up-down-5-minute-probability-estimator-ed527760/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.delx.ai](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.delx.ai/llms.txt)