# EconSignalPulse Recession Signals

> EconSignalPulse Recession Signals is a paid API for AI agents from econsignalpulse.vercel.app, paid per call via x402, $0.15/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).

Returns a multi-indicator recession probability score for any country, combining PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory, and IMF forecasts.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://econsignalpulse.vercel.app/api/econsignal/recession-signals
- Price: $0.15/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/econsignalpulse-recession-signals-136cc3ab
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_dSTY1OgYk0J2l79Xici5N

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability econsignalpulse-recession-signals-136cc3ab
```

Example prompt: What's the current multi-indicator recession probability for Germany — pull together the PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory, and IMF forecast signals into a single risk score?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a synthesized, multi-factor recession probability for a specific country rather than a single indicator. Ideal for macro research agents, cross-asset portfolio risk tools, and sovereign analysis workflows where combining PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory, and IMF forecasts into one score saves significant aggregation work.

## Known failure modes

- Unsupported or unrecognized country code returns an error or empty result
- Data unavailable for frontier markets with sparse official statistics
- IMF or World Bank data lag may reduce signal freshness for recent quarters
- Rate limiting or payment failure (x402) if USDC payment is not properly attached
- Partial data: some indicators may be missing for certain countries, reducing composite score confidence

## How this service works

Multi-indicator recession probability for any country — PMI, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trajectory and IMF forecasts. For macro and cross-asset agents.

## Output

A structured recession probability assessment for the requested country, incorporating PMI readings, yield curve shape and inversion signals, credit spreads, GDP growth trajectory, and IMF forward projections — aggregated into an overall recession risk score with individual indicator breakdowns.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET",
      "HEAD",
      "DELETE"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "iso2": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "ISO2 code for World Bank"
      },
      "iso3": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "ISO3 code for IMF"
      },
      "lang": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "en | es | fr | de | ja | zh | ko | pt | ar | hi (default: en)"
      },
      "country": {
       "type": "string",
       "description": "Country — e.g. \"United States\" | \"Germany\" | \"Japan\" | \"South Korea\" | \"Brazil\""
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "errors": {
     "type": "object",
     "description": "Documented error responses, keyed by HTTP status code",
     "additionalProperties": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
       "description"
      ],
      "properties": {
       "example": {
        "type": "object"
       },
       "description": {
        "type": "string"
       }
      }
     }
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "query_summary": {
   "iso2": "DE",
   "iso3": "DEU",
   "country": "Germany",
   "horizon": "12 months"
  },
  "historical_analog": "2002-2003 (tech bust + structural reform period) — 3 quarters of contraction followed by slow recovery",
  "structural_context": {
   "china_exposure": "7.3% of German exports to China — slowing Chinese economy is direct headwind",
   "fiscal_position": "Debt brake limits stimulus capacity; constitutional constraint on deficit spending",
   "energy_shock_legacy": "German industry permanently lost ~15% cost competitiveness post-2022 energy crisis",
   "automotive_disruption": "EV transition eroding German auto sector advantage; China competition intensifying"
  },
  "indicator_dashboard": {
   "gdp_trend": "Two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2023; shallow recovery 2024",
   "yield_curve": "Inverted — 10yr/2yr spread -45bps; historically 70% accurate 12-month signal",
   "pmi_services": 51.1,
   "pmi_manufacturing": 43.2,
   "unemployment_trend": "Rising — 5.7% vs 5.0% trough; Kurzarbeit uptake increasing",
   "ifo_business_climate": 86.5,
   "consumer_confidence_gfk": -21.3
  },
  "monitoring_triggers": [
   "PMI manufacturing sustained below 45 for 3+ months",
   "Unemployment above 6%",
   "DAX -15% from peak",
   "Energy prices spiking above €100/MWh"
  ],
  "recession_probability": {
   "pct": 62,
   "label": "Elevated risk",
   "confidence": "Medium-High"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/econsignalpulse-recession-signals-136cc3ab/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from econsignalpulse.vercel.app](https://www.zero.xyz/host/econsignalpulse.vercel.app/llms.txt)