# El Niño Market Watch – NoFA Daily Trading Signal

> El Niño Market Watch – NoFA Daily Trading Signal is a paid API for AI agents from trading-perps.vercel.app, paid per call via x402, $0.25/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns a rules-based LONG/SHORT trading signal across 21 ENSO-sensitive commodity and financial assets, including expected return, historical hit-rate with confidence intervals, CFTC COT crowding penalty, rationale, and live paper portfolio state.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://trading-perps.vercel.app/api/nofa/signal
- Price: $0.25/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/el-ni-o-market-watch-nofa-daily-trading-signal-b39ef2fc
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_DO1u8u6cASOYiGJJgXIj_

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability el-ni-o-market-watch-nofa-daily-trading-signal-b39ef2fc
```

Example prompt: Pull today's El Niño Market Watch NoFA signal — I want to see the LONG/SHORT pick across ENSO-sensitive assets, the expected return, historical hit-rate with the Wilson confidence interval, the CFTC crowding penalty, and how the paper portfolio is currently positioned.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a single, deterministic daily LONG/SHORT recommendation across ENSO-correlated commodity and financial assets, complete with historical performance statistics, crowding adjustment, and a running paper portfolio — all derived from El Niño/La Niña climate signals. Prefer this over generic trading signal APIs when the user's investment thesis is specifically tied to ENSO weather phenomena, or when you need a rules-based (non-ML) signal with transparent rationale. Not suitable for real-money execution advice.

## Known failure modes

- Payment not included or insufficient — 402 Payment Required, signal not returned
- NOAA/ENSO upstream data unavailable — signal may be stale or endpoint returns error
- Market data source outage — asset-level scores may be missing or incomplete
- Rate limiting or cold-start latency on Vercel serverless — occasional timeout on first call

## How this service works

Daily NoFA signal from El Niño Market Watch: a deterministic, rules-based LONG/SHORT pick across 21 ENSO-sensitive assets — expected return to the strong-scenario peak, historical hit-rate with Wilson 95% CI, CFTC COT crowding penalty, full rationale, plus the live paper portfolio (NAV, positions, trades). Simulation, not investment advice.

## Output

A JSON object containing: the daily LONG/SHORT NoFA signal for up to 21 ENSO-sensitive assets, the expected return to the strong-scenario peak, historical hit-rate with Wilson 95% confidence interval, CFTC COT crowding penalty applied, a human-readable rationale, and the current paper portfolio state including NAV, open positions, recent trades, and equity curve history.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [],
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "status": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "trades": {
       "type": "array"
      },
      "equity_curve": {
       "type": "array"
      },
      "latest_report": {
       "type": "object"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/el-ni-o-market-watch-nofa-daily-trading-signal-b39ef2fc/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from trading-perps.vercel.app](https://www.zero.xyz/host/trading-perps.vercel.app/llms.txt)