# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from email-verify.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket prediction markets for a given topic or event keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://email-verify.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: email-verify.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://email-verify.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/email-verify-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-46100af8
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_pMubyuKSJpIz4oo_aHsKH

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability email-verify-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-46100af8
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at the next FOMC meeting — and is there any notable whale sentiment on that market?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, geopolitical, crypto, or AI policy events from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks — especially when you want implied probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you need market-priced probabilities and trading activity signals.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty results or low-confidence match
- Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable — upstream data fetch failure
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple unrelated markets — response may include irrelevant markets
- Topic string too vague (e.g. single character) — rejected by minLength:1 but semantically unresolvable
- Payment failure via x402 protocol — 402 response if USDC payment not processed correctly

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://email-verify.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), trading volume figures, whale sentiment signals, and market metadata for prediction markets matching the queried topic or event keyword.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/email-verify-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-46100af8/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from email-verify.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/email-verify.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)