# Fed Rate Odds – FOMC & Central Bank Decision Probabilities

> Fed Rate Odds – FOMC & Central Bank Decision Probabilities is a paid API for AI agents from api.marketintelligenceapi.com, paid per call via x402, $0.005/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-11).

Returns the current probability of a Fed rate cut, hold, or hike for the next FOMC decision (and other central banks), priced from Hyperliquid prediction markets, with 24h change, USDC volume, and decision date.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.marketintelligenceapi.com/api/v1/rates/fed-rate-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.005/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-11
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/fed-rate-odds-fomc-central-bank-decision-probabilities-5ea86d7b
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_qU7MTcUaJYLthhdZzJSqb

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability fed-rate-odds-fomc-central-bank-decision-probabilities-5ea86d7b
```

Example prompt: What are the current prediction market odds for the next Fed rate decision — cut, hold, or hike — including the 24h change and how much volume has traded?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, market-implied probabilities for central bank rate decisions rather than analyst consensus or historical data. It is especially valuable immediately before trading around an FOMC or central bank announcement, or when you want to track intraday shifts in rate expectations priced by sophisticated prediction market participants on Hyperliquid. Prefer this over news-based or survey-based rate forecasts when you want live, volume-backed market sentiment.

## Known failure modes

- No active prediction market for an upcoming decision — returns empty or null probabilities
- Hyperliquid data source temporarily unavailable — stale or missing data
- Payment of $0.005 USDC not completed — 402 Payment Required response
- Rate-limited if too many requests are sent without payment
- Decision date already passed — may return outdated or no data

## How this service works

Fed rate odds: FOMC rate cut, hold or hike probability ($0.005) for the next Federal Reserve decision and other central banks, priced on Hyperliquid prediction markets, with 24h change in points, USDC volume and the decision date. Use before trading around a rate decision.

## Output

A JSON object containing the probability (as a percentage or decimal) of a rate cut, hold, and hike for the next Federal Reserve and/or other central bank decisions, the 24-hour change in those probabilities in basis points, USDC trading volume on the prediction market, and the scheduled decision date.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input",
  "output"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {},
     "additionalProperties": false
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "description": "Example JSON response returned by this endpoint"
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": true
  }
 },
 "additionalProperties": false
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/fed-rate-odds-fomc-central-bank-decision-probabilities-5ea86d7b/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.marketintelligenceapi.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.marketintelligenceapi.com/llms.txt)