# Football Match Probability Calculator (Independent Poisson Model) > Football Match Probability Calculator (Independent Poisson Model) is a paid API for AI agents from gofiber.hr, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-22). Calculates football match outcome probabilities (home win, draw, away win, BTTS, over/under 2.5, score matrix) from expected goals (xG) values using an independent Poisson model ## Facts - Endpoint: POST https://gofiber.hr/x402/math/football-probability?utm_source=zero.xyz - Price: $0.02/call - Payment: x402 - Status: unknown - Last checked: 2026-10-22 - Activations on Zero: 0 - Tags: x402 - Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/football-match-probability-calculator-independent-poisson-model-cdaa706b - Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_A7AyxBLBNnOs6sUZokfw8 Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently. ## How to call it through Zero Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`): ```sh zero fetch --capability football-match-probability-calculator-independent-poisson-model-cdaa706b -d '' ``` Example prompt: Using the independent Poisson model with home xG of 1.8 and away xG of 1.1, calculate the full match probability breakdown — home win, draw, away win, BTTS, over/under 2.5, and a score matrix up to 5 goals, with max goals capped at 10. ## When to prefer this Choose this endpoint when you need a mathematically rigorous, Poisson-based probability distribution over football match outcomes from expected goals inputs. It is ideal for sports betting analysis, fantasy football, or match modeling pipelines where you need both aggregate markets (home/draw/away, BTTS, over/under) and granular scoreline probabilities in a single call. Prefer it over simpler win-probability APIs when you need the full score matrix or when xG values are your primary input signal. ## Known failure modes - home_xg or away_xg <= 0 (exclusiveMinimum violated) — returns validation error - max_goals > 15 or score_matrix_max_goals > 15 — returns validation error - Non-numeric xG values — returns schema validation error - Payment not attached or insufficient — returns HTTP 402 - Internal computation error — may return error status with job_id for debugging ## How this service works GOFIBER d.o.o. iz Petrinje izvodi elektroinstalacije, strukturno mrežno kabliranje, videonadzor i WAGO PLC automatizaciju u Sisačko-moslavačkoj županiji i šire. Brza ponuda. ## Output Returns a JSON object containing match market probabilities: home_win, draw, away_win (summing to 1), btts_yes/no, over_2.5/under_2.5, and a score_matrix of individual scoreline probabilities (e.g. '1-0': 0.123). Also includes model metadata: model name, method, execution time, truncation mass, score_matrix_mass, verification status, tool version, and a result SHA256 hash for integrity checking. ## Request schema (JSON Schema) ```json { "type": "object", "properties": { "model": { "type": "string", "title": "Model", "default": "independent-poisson", "example": "independent-poisson", "examples": [ "independent-poisson" ] }, "away_xg": { "type": "number", "title": "Away Xg", "default": 1, "example": 1, "maximum": 20, "examples": [ 1 ], "exclusiveMinimum": 0 }, "home_xg": { "type": "number", "title": "Home Xg", "default": 1.5, "example": 1.5, "maximum": 20, "examples": [ 1.5 ], "exclusiveMinimum": 0 }, "max_goals": { "type": "integer", "title": "Max Goals", "default": 10, "example": 10, "maximum": 15, "minimum": 1, "examples": [ 10 ] }, "score_matrix_max_goals": { "type": "integer", "title": "Score Matrix Max Goals", "default": 5, "example": 5, "maximum": 15, "minimum": 0, "examples": [ 5 ] } } } ``` ## Response schema (JSON Schema) ```json { "type": "json", "example": { "job_id": "3f2a9c8e7b6d5a4f3e2d1c0b9a8f7e6d5c4b3a2f1e0d9c8b7a6f5e4d3c2b1a09", "result": { "tool": "sports_probability", "result": { "draw": 0.2598475202403483, "model": "independent-poisson", "method": "poisson_exact", "metric": "match_markets", "btts_no": 0.5089246834, "away_win": 0.2522070740684634, "btts_yes": 0.4910753166, "home_win": 0.4879454056911883, "over_2_5": 0.4561865786, "under_2_5": 0.5438134214, "score_matrix": { "0-0": 0.0820850447, "0-1": 0.0820850447, "0-2": 0.0410425224, "0-3": 0.0136808408, "0-4": 0.0034202102, "0-5": 0.000684042, "1-0": 0.1231275671, "1-1": 0.1231275671, "1-2": 0.0615637836, "1-3": 0.0205212612, "1-4": 0.0051303153, "1-5": 0.0010260631, "2-0": 0.0923456753, "2-1": 0.0923456753, "2-2": 0.0461728377, "2-3": 0.0153909459, "2-4": 0.0038477365, "2-5": 0.0007695473, "3-0": 0.0461728377, "3-1": 0.0461728377, "3-2": 0.0230864188, "3-3": 0.0076954729, "3-4": 0.0019238682, "3-5": 0.0003847736, "4-0": 0.0173148141, "4-1": 0.0173148141, "4-2": 0.0086574071, "4-3": 0.0028858024, "4-4": 0.0007214506, "4-5": 0.0001442901, "5-0": 0.0051944442, "5-1": 0.0051944442, "5-2": 0.0025972221, "5-3": 0.0008657407, "5-4": 0.0002164352, "5-5": 0.000043287 }, "truncation_mass": 5.618e-7, "score_matrix_mass": 0.9949530409 }, "status": "ok", "rendered": null, "verified": true, "warnings": [], "request_id": "27c18c6b0a714152b16575b4e3c85b43", "execution_ms": 5.154, "input_sha256": "3aea24f640ed8aaea6ffe8f09bc219f015aed100e0242366bf02bcae7527c765", "tool_version": { "tool": "sports_probability", "digest": "b57001ea80408f9ae57b853e34562d1a50ef201d7639a94cd770cdebd1143085", "params": { "metric": "match_markets", "max_goals": 10, "score_matrix_max_goals": 5 }, "environment": { "blas": "scipy-openblas", "python": "3.12.13", "system": "Linux", "machine": "x86_64", "libraries": { "numpy": "2.2.1", "scipy": "1.15.0", "sympy": "1.14.0", "ortools": "9.11.4210", "networkx": "3.4.2" }, "blas_version": "0.3.28", "implementation": "CPython" }, "tool_impl_version": "1.0.0" }, "verification": { "comparison": "numerical_equivalence" }, "re … (truncated) ``` ## More - Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/football-match-probability-calculator-independent-poisson-model-cdaa706b/health.json - [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt) - [Other services from gofiber.hr](https://www.zero.xyz/host/gofiber.hr/llms.txt)