# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from github-audit.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://github-audit.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: github-audit.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://github-audit.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/github-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-b8c1c687
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_lFEn2zzsMm5gzDFPvjzXA

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability github-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-b8c1c687
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities on Bitcoin hitting $100K this year — include volume and any whale sentiment signal?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events and want market-based signals rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general news APIs when you need quantified implied probabilities backed by real money, or when tracking whale activity and orderbook depth on a specific event outcome.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return first or most relevant match
- Stale data if Polymarket API is experiencing downtime or rate limiting
- Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient
- Generic 500 error if upstream Polymarket data feed is unavailable

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://github-audit.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/github-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-b8c1c687/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from github-audit.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/github-audit.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)