# HALOWERK Ruin Probability Calculator

> HALOWERK Ruin Probability Calculator is a paid API for AI agents from handel.halowerk.com, paid per call via x402, $0.005/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-17).

Computes the finite ruin probability for a trading strategy using exact absorbing Bernoulli calculations over a bounded horizon, given win probability, payoff ratio, trade count, and capital risk units.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://handel.halowerk.com/v1/rechner/ruin-probability?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.005/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-17
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/halowerk-ruin-probability-calculator-c5a00758
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Cl9iqZVTtD8eQJySkoD_h

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability halowerk-ruin-probability-calculator-c5a00758 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What's my probability of ruin if I take 80 trades with a 52% win rate, a payoff ratio of 2, and I'm risking 50 capital units?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need an exact, mathematically rigorous finite-horizon ruin probability computed via absorbing Bernoulli methods, rather than approximations or Monte Carlo simulations. Ideal for fixed-risk strategies with integer payoff ratios (1–10) and a defined trade horizon of up to 200 trades. Not suitable if you need ruin probability over an infinite horizon, variable position sizing, real market data integration, or trade execution.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid win_probability outside 0–1 range returns validation error
- trade_count exceeding 200 or below 1 returns out-of-range error
- payoff_ratio outside integer range 1–10 returns validation error
- capital_risk_units exceeding 1000 or below 1 returns validation error
- Missing required fields returns bad request error
- Payment not processed (x402) returns 402 Payment Required

## How this service works

Endliche Ruin-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Exakte absorbierende Bernoulli-Rechnung bis zum gelieferten Horizont; konstante Risikoeinheit und ganzzahliges CRV 1–10. Keine unbegrenzte oder universelle Ruinprognose. Alle Zahlen, Kurse und Vorgaben liefert der Aufrufer. Keine eigenen Kursdaten, kein Brokerzugriff, keine Ausführung. Rechenwerkzeug, keine Anlageberatung, keine Empfehlung.

## Output

Returns the finite ruin probability as a numeric value representing the exact absorbing-state probability computed via Bernoulli calculations — i.e., the probability that the trader will reach ruin (zero capital) within the specified number of trades given the strategy parameters.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "trade_count": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 200,
   "minimum": 1
  },
  "payoff_ratio": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 10,
   "minimum": 1
  },
  "win_probability": {
   "type": "number",
   "maximum": 1,
   "minimum": 0
  },
  "capital_risk_units": {
   "type": "integer",
   "maximum": 1000,
   "minimum": 1
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/halowerk-ruin-probability-calculator-c5a00758/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from handel.halowerk.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/handel.halowerk.com/llms.txt)