# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given event keyword or question.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-06e62104
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_8FyKiQ7dGCwwKMX8lrRQe

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-06e62104
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds on the Fed cutting interest rates before the end of the year — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and any whale sentiment signals.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from an active prediction market (Polymarket) rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. It is ideal for macro, crypto, geopolitical, and AI event probability queries where market-implied odds and trader positioning (whale sentiment, volume) are more informative than raw news data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result
- Topic string too vague, returning multiple unrelated markets
- Polymarket API downstream outage causing stale or failed data fetch
- Payment required (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment not fulfilled
- Rate limiting if called too frequently without proper payment headers

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), market trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for relevant prediction market events matching the query.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-06e62104/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)