# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-0b47fadc
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_6pRQvAoemUjch4AjrAaFK

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-0b47fadc
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability that the Fed will cut interest rates this year — including the current volume and whether whale traders are leaning yes or no?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events drawn directly from Polymarket's live orderbook. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs or social media analysis when you want financially-backed, market-implied probabilities rather than qualitative opinion. Best suited for agents that need actionable event probability signals with volume and whale-positioning context.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the topic — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — response may return unintended market data
- Polymarket API upstream outage — endpoint may return 5xx or stale data
- Payment not processed via x402 — returns 402 Payment Required before data is served
- Very low-volume or recently closed markets may have incomplete orderbook data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators reflecting large-trader positioning on the event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-0b47fadc/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)