# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket prediction markets for macro, crypto, and AI events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-484b0c94
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_w7ib7EdPJoGW2pBYspuYH

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-484b0c94 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of year — include volume and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's liquid prediction markets. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money and volume. Ideal for agents monitoring event risk, informing trading decisions, or tracking consensus probability shifts over time.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or low-confidence results
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or unavailable data
- Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple unrelated markets — may return unexpected market
- Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket prediction market data including implied Yes and No probabilities, orderbook snapshot, 24h trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the queried event or market topic.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-484b0c94/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)