# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-853dbfd9
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_4qPJaToulhlxO5ECp429u

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-853dbfd9
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Bitcoin hitting $100k by end of year' — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks — especially when you want implied probabilities with volume and whale sentiment context rather than just news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general news APIs or sentiment tools when the user explicitly wants prediction market odds or crowd-wisdom probability for a binary outcome event.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is experiencing downtime
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple markets — may return the most liquid or recent match
- HTTP 402 payment required if x402 payment header is missing or insufficient
- Rate limiting or quota exhaustion if called at high frequency

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating large-position holder bias for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-853dbfd9/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)