# Kalshi Prediction Market Probability

> Kalshi Prediction Market Probability is a paid API for AI agents from api-production-54bd.up.railway.app, paid per call via x402, $0.001/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns current market probability for Kalshi prediction market contracts

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api-production-54bd.up.railway.app/v1/kalshi-probability
- Price: $0.001/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/kalshi-prediction-market-probability-854b5088
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_vYs3PqNNJK61FIY_Qvm-D

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability kalshi-prediction-market-probability-854b5088 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What probability is Kalshi currently pricing for the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need current market-implied probability for a specific Kalshi prediction market event — e.g. election outcomes, Fed decisions, economic data releases — rather than sports odds APIs, general crypto price feeds, or other trading data endpoints. Especially useful when you want crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro or political events.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unknown Kalshi ticker returns 404 or empty result
- Market may be closed or resolved, returning stale or null probability
- Payment required (402) if x402 payment header not included
- Rate limiting if too many requests without valid payment
- Kalshi API downtime causing upstream errors

## How this service works

Trading Data API — 23 endpoints for agents: crypto & stock prices/OHLCV, ATR, Fair Value Gaps, ICT liquidity levels, funding/OI, order books, Kalshi prediction markets, DeFi TVL, volatility, macro calendar, and an AI momentum score. Full catalog at /v1/status.

## Output

Returns the current market-implied probability for a specified Kalshi prediction market contract, likely including yes/no probability percentages, market ticker, and current price data.

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/kalshi-prediction-market-probability-854b5088/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api-production-54bd.up.railway.app](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api-production-54bd.up.railway.app/llms.txt)