# Kronos BTC Options-Implied Probability

> Kronos BTC Options-Implied Probability is a paid API for AI agents from kronossignals.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-10).

Returns the options-market-implied probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will be above each specified strike price at a given target time, derived from Deribit's live options order book using skew-inclusive call-spread digitals.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-10
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/kronos-btc-options-implied-probability-6acc4047
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Q8dcQ0juSUIwNS_NCIIk0

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability kronos-btc-options-implied-probability-6acc4047
```

Example prompt: What's the Deribit options-implied probability that BTC is above $85,000 and $90,000 at the end of this month? Use strikes 85000,90000 and set the target to December 31 at midnight UTC.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need the options market's risk-neutral probability for BTC crossing specific price thresholds at a defined future time — especially when pricing or cross-checking Kalshi, Polymarket, or other prediction market contracts on BTC. It is preferable to ML forecasts when you want a market-consensus, arbitrage-consistent probability rather than a model-based directional prediction. Best for quantitative traders, prediction market arbitrageurs, and agents that need fair-value benchmarks for binary crypto outcome contracts.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or malformed strike prices — API may reject non-numeric or out-of-range strikes
- Target time too far in the future — no liquid Deribit options may exist at that expiry
- More than 25 strikes requested — exceeds the documented per-call limit
- Invalid ISO timestamp or Unix time format for the 'at' parameter
- Payment not received or insufficient USDC — x402 payment flow fails, 402 returned
- Deribit options book unavailable or illiquid — may return null or error for strikes with no options data

## How this service works

Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's fair value for Kalshi/Polymarket crypto threshold contracts, not a forecast. Query: strikes=85000,90000 (up to 25), at=ISO time or Unix. $0.02 USDC via x402.

## Output

A list of strike prices mapped to their options-implied probabilities (0–1 or percentage) that BTC will be above each strike at the specified target time. Values are derived from skew-inclusive call-spread digital pricing on the Deribit options book, representing the risk-neutral market consensus, not a directional forecast.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "pathParams": {
     "type": "object"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/kronos-btc-options-implied-probability-6acc4047/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from kronossignals.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/kronossignals.com/llms.txt)