# ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test

> ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test is a paid API for AI agents from api.manylives.me, paid per call via x402, $0.03/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-10).

Returns a statistical luck analysis for a given trading strategy, including hit rate, p-value, and Holm-adjusted p-value to determine whether the strategy's performance is statistically significant or likely due to chance.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.03/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-10
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/manylives-track-records-luck-test-618386bb
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_bnCQ07WQZw9h9LoembH_k

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability manylives-track-records-luck-test-618386bb
```

Example prompt: Can you run the luck test on strategy CRY-5m-001 over the last 30 days and tell me whether its hit rate is statistically significant or likely just chance?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need to statistically validate whether a specific trading strategy's backtest performance is genuine or a result of overfitting/multiple comparison bias. It is specifically valuable when evaluating strategies from the ManyLives catalog (identified by IDs like CRY-1h-042), where the Holm correction across 2,000+ strategies is pre-computed. Prefer this over raw backtest data endpoints when your primary concern is whether a strategy's edge is real after correcting for data mining.

## Known failure modes

- Missing or invalid strategy ID returns an error — the 'id' query parameter is required
- Unknown strategy ID returns a not-found error if the strategy doesn't exist in the 2,000+ strategy catalog
- Invalid window value (not one of 7d, 30d, 3m, 1y, all) may return a validation error
- Payment failure or insufficient USDC balance returns HTTP 402 and the call is not executed
- Network timeout if the statistical computation takes longer than expected

## How this service works

Pay-per-call tools for people building AI agents: live web search and page contents, point-in-time crypto market data and news for backtests (no lookahead), verifiable track records of 1,000 crypto strategies locked on the Base network, company profiles, quick AI and batch prices. Ask us to turn a public website into a JSON endpoint. Pay per call, no account, free trial.

## Output

A JSON object containing the strategy ID, number of trades evaluated, the time window analyzed, a plain-English verdict on whether the strategy looks statistically sound, a hit rate (fraction of winning trades), a raw one-sided p-value, and a Holm-adjusted p-value that corrects for the fact that many strategies were tested — higher Holm-adjusted values indicate likely luck.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "GET"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "id",
      "window"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "id": {
       "type": "string",
       "examples": [
        "CRY-5m-001"
       ],
       "description": "strategy id (required), e.g. CRY-1h-042"
      },
      "window": {
       "type": "string",
       "examples": [
        "all"
       ],
       "description": "required lookback, e.g. 1d, 3d, 1w, 30d, 3m, 1y, all or a start date YYYY-MM-DD"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "json"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "id": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "calls": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "window": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "verdict": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "hit_rate": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "holm_adjusted_p": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "p_value_one_sided": {
       "type": "number"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "id": "CRY-1h-042",
  "calls": 2400,
  "window": "all time",
  "verdict": "looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested",
  "hit_rate": 0.523,
  "holm_adjusted_p": 0.9,
  "p_value_one_sided": 0.012
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/manylives-track-records-luck-test-618386bb/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.manylives.me](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.manylives.me/llms.txt)