# ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test

> ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test is a paid API for AI agents from manylives.me, paid per call via x402, $0.03/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-10).

Returns statistical significance metrics (p-value, Holm-adjusted p-value, hit rate, verdict) for a given trading strategy ID to determine whether its performance is genuine or attributable to luck.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.03/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-10
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/manylives-track-records-luck-test-e34f7af1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_trQa3MiDFsU2P6hvf6GsW

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability manylives-track-records-luck-test-e34f7af1
```

Example prompt: Can you check if strategy CRY-5m-001 is genuinely performing or just got lucky — run the full track record luck test over all time?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need to determine whether a specific trading strategy's historical hit rate is statistically significant after correcting for multiple-hypothesis bias (Holm adjustment). Prefer this over a simple win-rate lookup when you want a rigorous, bias-corrected verdict rather than raw performance numbers. It is especially valuable after running many strategy backtests, where naive p-values are misleading.

## Known failure modes

- Missing or invalid strategy ID returns an error — the 'id' query parameter is required
- Unknown strategy ID returns no data or a 404-equivalent
- Invalid window value (not one of: 7d, 30d, 3m, 1y, all) may default to 'all' or return an error
- Insufficient call count for a strategy may yield unreliable statistics
- Payment failure via x402 protocol results in a 402 response before data is returned

## How this service works

No forms, no dropdowns. Describe the outcome in plain words and the Brain asks what it must, lists the job, collects offers and recommends one.

## Output

A JSON object containing the strategy ID, number of calls evaluated, the time window assessed, the raw one-sided p-value, the Holm-adjusted p-value (correcting for multiple strategy testing), the hit rate, and a plain-English verdict explaining whether the performance looks genuine or could be attributed to luck given how many strategies were tested.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "GET"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [
      "id",
      "window"
     ],
     "properties": {
      "id": {
       "type": "string",
       "examples": [
        "CRY-5m-001"
       ],
       "description": "strategy id (required), e.g. CRY-1h-042"
      },
      "window": {
       "type": "string",
       "examples": [
        "all"
       ],
       "description": "required lookback, e.g. 1d, 3d, 1w, 30d, 3m, 1y, all or a start date YYYY-MM-DD"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "json"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "id": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "calls": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "window": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "verdict": {
       "type": "string"
      },
      "hit_rate": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "holm_adjusted_p": {
       "type": "number"
      },
      "p_value_one_sided": {
       "type": "number"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "id": "CRY-1h-042",
  "calls": 2400,
  "window": "all time",
  "verdict": "looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested",
  "hit_rate": 0.523,
  "holm_adjusted_p": 0.9,
  "p_value_one_sided": 0.012
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/manylives-track-records-luck-test-e34f7af1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from manylives.me](https://www.zero.xyz/host/manylives.me/llms.txt)