# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI prediction market event.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-03683d9f
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_iwpyR8FjKzq5JxssAqydq

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-03683d9f -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin ETF approval, including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market — particularly when you want implied odds, orderbook depth, volume, and large-trader (whale) sentiment in a single call. Prefer this over generic news or sentiment APIs when quantified probabilistic market consensus is required.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null results
- Topic string too vague or ambiguous, returning unrelated market data
- Polymarket API or data feed temporarily unavailable, causing timeout or error response
- Market may be resolved/closed, returning stale or historical data instead of live odds
- Rate limiting or payment failure (HTTP 402) if USDC micropayment is not processed

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, whale/large-trader sentiment signals, and relevant market metadata for the queried prediction market event or topic.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-03683d9f/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)