# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1e87d4b0
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_NQMRtb2z6zIxdV1DTpekM

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1e87d4b0
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin hitting $150k by end of year — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for binary outcomes in macro, crypto, or AI events. Prefer it over traditional news or sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probability rather than editorial opinion, and when the question maps naturally to a Polymarket prediction market (yes/no event with a defined resolution date).

## Known failure modes

- No active Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return the wrong or a low-liquidity market
- Polymarket API unavailability or rate limiting causes stale or missing data
- Very niche or newly created markets may have thin orderbooks and unreliable probabilities
- x402 payment failure or insufficient USDC balance causes request rejection

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1e87d4b0/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)