# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-74f679a6
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_g35HWpk6IIKOsyARRaPlj

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-74f679a6
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now that the Fed cuts interest rates in September — include volume and whale sentiment if available?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as priced by actual money on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment or static forecasts when you want market-implied odds reflecting the financial conviction of traders and whales. Ideal for agents that need live probability inputs for decision-making, briefings, or monitoring market sentiment on binary outcomes.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the queried topic — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return the most prominent or first match
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting — returns error or stale data
- Very niche or recently-created markets may have low liquidity, making probability estimates unreliable
- Payment of $0.01 USDC via x402 required per call — missing or failed payment returns 402 error

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities expressed as percentages, current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the queried event topic. The response reflects real-time market participant consensus on the likelihood of the specified event occurring.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-74f679a6/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)