# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-75a77e4e
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_b8P1rKXTa5Qp1KTBLFSm2

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-75a77e4e
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July 2025 — give me the Yes/No implied probabilities, current volume, and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need live, real-time prediction market probabilities from Polymarket specifically — particularly for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you need crowd-sourced, financially-backed probability estimates rather than editorial opinion. Best when the user wants quantified Yes/No odds, trading volume context, or whale-level positioning data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — response may return empty or null market data
- Polymarket API rate limits or downtime may cause delayed or failed data retrieval
- Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — response may return multiple or mismatched contracts
- Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned
- Stale orderbook data if Polymarket liquidity is very low for the queried market

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for relevant prediction market contracts.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-75a77e4e/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)