# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c403abc3
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_X4lOoRsY8sSb0n-eDlnGR

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c403abc3 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes probability for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?' — I want the current orderbook sentiment and trading volume too.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you need quantified, market-implied probabilities with volume and whale positioning data. Best suited for financial agents, forecasting workflows, or decision-support systems that require live prediction market signals rather than qualitative news summaries.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague or ambiguous — no matching Polymarket market found
- Polymarket API upstream outage or rate limit — returns service unavailable error
- Market has expired or resolved — returns stale or empty orderbook data
- Topic returns multiple markets — may return aggregated or first-matched result only
- Payment not processed — HTTP 402 returned before data is served

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities expressed as percentages, current trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and market metadata for the queried event topic or question.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c403abc3/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)