# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-security.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, 24h volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-security.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-3801db0d
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_J1tqg9y961w0oeYNxWr9r

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-3801db0d
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Fed rate cut in 2025' — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for specific macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market, especially when you want implied probability percentages rather than subjective analyst forecasts. It is ideal for agents that need live market-derived sentiment, volume signals, and whale positioning for decision support or information display.

## Known failure modes

- Topic not found on Polymarket — returns empty or null results if no matching market exists
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return unexpected or merged data
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting — endpoint may return errors or stale data
- Payment failure (x402) — call rejected if micropayment is not properly submitted
- Overly broad topic query returns low-confidence aggregated odds across many markets

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), 24-hour trading volume, and whale sentiment signals derived from large-order activity in the relevant prediction market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-3801db0d/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-security.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)