# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mcp-security.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mcp-security.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8a7674c1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_YTdEu-9LkReCtC19XKm0I

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8a7674c1
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now on whether the Fed will cut rates at the next FOMC meeting — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and current volume?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market — especially when you want implied probabilities, orderbook depth, volume, or whale sentiment rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general news or financial data APIs when you need a single aggregated market-consensus probability figure for a binary outcome event.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty result or error
- Polymarket API upstream outage causes stale or unavailable data
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return multiple or lowest-relevance market
- Payment failure via x402 prevents request from completing
- Rate limiting if too many calls are made in rapid succession

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), 24-hour trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and relevant market metadata for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mcp-security-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8a7674c1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mcp-security.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mcp-security.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)