# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from mesh.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://mesh.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: mesh.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://mesh.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mesh-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-6d5ea2dd
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_cGx2COiVR2aLK_9DadMQi

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mesh-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-6d5ea2dd
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end of 2025 — including trading volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events as reflected by actual money at stake on Polymarket. Prefer this over news search or LLM reasoning when you want market-implied probabilities backed by orderbook volume and whale activity, not editorial opinion.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable — may return upstream error
- Ambiguous topic matching multiple markets — may return results for an unintended market
- Payment failure via x402 micropayment protocol — request not processed
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded for the $0.01/call endpoint

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mesh.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mesh-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-6d5ea2dd/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from mesh.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/mesh.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)