# Momus US Midterms 2026 Prediction Model

> Momus US Midterms 2026 Prediction Model is a paid API for AI agents from x402.momusai.io, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-13).

Returns Senate and House control probabilities and seat distributions for the 2026 US midterms, derived from a correlated Monte Carlo simulation priced against live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts with Momus edge estimates.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402.momusai.io/midterms?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-13
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/momus-us-midterms-2026-prediction-model-8427bc56
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_1AJX4m2En7L05LWNtuDVH

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability momus-us-midterms-2026-prediction-model-8427bc56
```

Example prompt: What does Momus's 2026 midterms model say right now — give me the Senate and House control probabilities, the seat distributions, and where Momus sees the biggest edge against the live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a probabilistically rigorous, correlated Monte Carlo forecast specifically for the 2026 US midterm elections (Senate and House), particularly when you also want direct comparison to live Polymarket and Kalshi contract prices and explicit edge estimates. Prefer this over generic election forecast aggregators when you need market-facing probabilities and edge signals rather than just poll averages.

## Known failure modes

- Model not yet run for current week — stale or unavailable data
- Payment not completed or USDC balance insufficient for $0.05 fee
- Endpoint temporarily unavailable due to infrastructure or update cycle
- No polling or ratings update available for current week — model may reflect prior week's priors

## How this service works

Momus US-midterms 2026 model: Senate and House control probabilities and seat distributions from a correlated Monte Carlo (20,000 draws, shared national swing + race noise, ratings + polling layer), priced against the live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts with Momus's edge per market. Weekly run.

## Output

A structured response containing: probability of each party controlling the Senate and House, full seat-count distributions from 20,000 Monte Carlo draws (incorporating correlated national swing and per-race noise, ratings, and polling), fair-value odds for each chamber, live Polymarket and Kalshi contract prices for comparison, and Momus's estimated edge per market. Output reflects a weekly model run.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "required": [],
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/momus-us-midterms-2026-prediction-model-8427bc56/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402.momusai.io](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402.momusai.io/llms.txt)