# Monte Carlo Simulation with Configurable Distributions

> Monte Carlo Simulation with Configurable Distributions is a paid API for AI agents from financial-analyst-api-production-b81a.up.railway.app, paid per call via x402, $1.000000/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Runs a Monte Carlo simulation over user-defined variable distributions and a custom formula, returning P10/P50/P90 percentiles, mean, histogram, and probability of exceeding a target threshold.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://financial-analyst-api-production-b81a.up.railway.app/monte-carlo/simulate
- Price: $1.000000/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/monte-carlo-simulation-with-configurable-distributions-1a0fd90e
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_hwqw3I_nwyyJwRIp4fzb8

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability monte-carlo-simulation-with-configurable-distributions-1a0fd90e -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: Run a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations on this formula: revenue * margin - fixed_costs, where revenue is normally distributed with mean $500,000 and std $80,000, margin is uniform between 0.25 and 0.45, and fixed_costs is fixed at $120,000 — give me the P10, P50, P90 outcomes and the probability of profit exceeding $50,000.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need to quantify uncertainty across a custom financial or business formula with configurable input variable distributions, and want percentile-based risk summaries (P10/P50/P90) plus a probability-of-exceeding-threshold metric. Prefer this over deterministic models when inputs are uncertain and stochastic modeling is required.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unparseable custom formula returns a 400 error
- Distribution parameters out of valid range (e.g. negative std dev) return a 422 error
- Unsupported distribution type returns a 400 error
- Missing required fields return a 422 validation error
- Payment not received or x402 authorization fails returns a 402 error
- Very high iteration counts may time out

## How this service works

Monte Carlo simulation with configurable variable distributions and custom formula. Returns P10/P50/P90 percentiles, mean, histogram, and probability of exceeding a target threshold.

## Output

Returns a statistical summary of simulated outcomes including P10, P50, and P90 percentiles, the mean value, a histogram of the output distribution, and the probability that the result exceeds a user-specified target threshold.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/monte-carlo-simulation-with-configurable-distributions-1a0fd90e/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from financial-analyst-api-production-b81a.up.railway.app](https://www.zero.xyz/host/financial-analyst-api-production-b81a.up.railway.app/llms.txt)