# Mycelia Signal – Fed Rate Probability Distribution

> Mycelia Signal – Fed Rate Probability Distribution is a paid API for AI agents from api.myceliasignal.com, paid per call via x402, $0.5/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns market-implied FOMC rate path probabilities (cut/hold/hike per meeting), entropy, expected change, and surprise metrics derived from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets, delivered as an Ed25519-signed attestation.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/fed
- Price: $0.5/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mycelia-signal-fed-rate-probability-distribution-813c5077
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_eO4t5uLzlHAKdmh0oW_VP

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mycelia-signal-fed-rate-probability-distribution-813c5077
```

Example prompt: What's the current market-implied probability of the Fed cutting, holding, or hiking rates at the next FOMC meeting — including entropy and expected change — signed and sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need cryptographically attested, aggregated prediction market data on Fed rate probabilities rather than raw exchange feeds or survey-based forecasts. It is ideal for autonomous agents that need tamper-evident macro signals (via Ed25519 signing) for use in investment logic, risk models, or macro briefings. Prefer it over scraping Kalshi or Polymarket directly because it aggregates both sources and provides derived metrics (entropy, surprise, expected change) in a single call. Use it over econometric model outputs when you want market-consensus, real-time implied probabilities rather than model-based estimates.

## Known failure modes

- Prediction market data unavailable or stale — upstream Kalshi/Polymarket API outage
- Payment not received — x402 payment required before data is returned
- Signature verification failure — Ed25519 attestation cannot be verified if pubkey is not fetched from discovery endpoint
- No upcoming FOMC meeting data — response may be empty or indicate no scheduled meeting in range
- Rate limit or quota exceeded — repeated calls without proper payment may be rejected

## How this service works

Fed rate probability distribution — market-implied FOMC rate path from Kalshi + Polymarket. Entropy, expected change, surprise, prob cut/hold/hike per meeting — Ed25519 signed attestation

## Output

A signed JSON payload containing: per-meeting probability of rate cut, hold, and hike; expected rate change in basis points; Shannon entropy of the distribution (uncertainty measure); a surprise metric; and an Ed25519 cryptographic attestation verifying data integrity and origin. The data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mycelia-signal-fed-rate-probability-distribution-813c5077/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.myceliasignal.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.myceliasignal.com/llms.txt)