# Mycelia Signal — Prediction Market Divergence (Kalshi vs Polymarket)

> Mycelia Signal — Prediction Market Divergence (Kalshi vs Polymarket) is a paid API for AI agents from api.myceliasignal.com, paid per call via x402, $1/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns the current spread between Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets on BTC price and Fed rate, with a significance regime label (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED), signed with Ed25519

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/prediction/divergence
- Price: $1/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/mycelia-signal-prediction-market-divergence-kalshi-vs-polymarket-b794ed4f
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Kp7OXVrqlf0ysn6SxoELk

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability mycelia-signal-prediction-market-divergence-kalshi-vs-polymarket-b794ed4f
```

Example prompt: What's the current divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket on BTC price and the Fed rate — are the markets aligned or split, and can I get a signed attestation of the reading?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a cryptographically attested, cross-venue comparison of prediction market sentiment on BTC price or Fed rate — especially when downstream systems require verifiable provenance (Ed25519 signature). Prefer it over scraping individual venue APIs when you need a normalized divergence regime label (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) rather than raw probabilities, or when building on-chain agents that need trustless data verification.

## Known failure modes

- External prediction market APIs unavailable — stale or missing spread data
- Ed25519 signing failure — unsigned or malformed attestation returned
- Payment not received — 402 response requiring $1 USDC payment via x402 protocol
- Market not currently active — one or both venues may not have an open market for the requested asset
- Rate limiting — too many requests in a short window

## How this service works

Cross-venue prediction market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket spread on BTC price and Fed rate with significance regime (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) — Ed25519 signed attestation

## Output

A JSON response containing the numerical spread between Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets for BTC price and Fed rate outcomes, a significance regime label (DIVERGENT, MODERATE, or ALIGNED) indicating how meaningful the gap is, and an Ed25519 signed attestation allowing downstream verification of data authenticity.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/mycelia-signal-prediction-market-divergence-kalshi-vs-polymarket-b794ed4f/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.myceliasignal.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.myceliasignal.com/llms.txt)