# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-115e67b7
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Q_VDEFYf_Tt2oam4AqLOr

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-115e67b7
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probability for the US entering a recession in 2025 — including volume and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events backed by actual money at stake on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities with volume signals and whale activity. Best suited for agents doing event-driven research, risk assessment, or trading intelligence where prediction market consensus is more actionable than opinion-based sources.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API unavailability causing stale or missing orderbook data
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets
- Payment not processed (HTTP 402) blocking the response
- Rate limiting or quota exhaustion returning an error

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), 24h trading volume, whale sentiment signals, and relevant market metadata for the queried prediction market topic or event keyword.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-115e67b7/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)