# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Yes/No implied probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1c298bc8
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_21ZOfYoN0AYk5V7opB7tV

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1c298bc8
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now for the Fed cutting interest rates in July — give me the Yes/No implied probabilities and any whale sentiment signal.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-implied probabilities for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market — particularly when you want live orderbook-derived odds rather than static forecasts or analyst estimates. Prefer this over news APIs when the goal is market consensus probability rather than narrative coverage.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream fetch failure
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — result may include multiple market entries requiring disambiguation
- Payment not processed (x402 flow failure) — endpoint returns 402 without data
- Very low-volume markets may have unreliable or stale orderbook data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing the matched Polymarket market question(s), current implied Yes and No probabilities derived from the live orderbook, total market volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals for the queried topic.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1c298bc8/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)